Gartner Hype Cycle brings about a good prediction for Tokenization
Gartner Inc, known by many as a leading research firm in the technology sector, just published this year’s edition of the Hype Cycle for Blockchain and Web3. This is an article featuring everything across the blockchain and the Web3 spectrum, from CBDCs and the Metaverse to DAOs, dApps, and of course Tokenization.
The article is centered around what is called “Hype Cycles” consisting of the 5-step path innovation takes from entering the market to when a traditional business is likely to benefit from it.
The first step of Gartner is an objective look at the expectations surrounding various innovations. This is later related to the proven value of that innovation over time. Using these parameters, an innovation is tracked as it moves over 5 predictable phases.
1. Innovation Trigger
This is when an event such as a technological breakthrough or a product launch gets people talking. From here start-ups emerge, Venture Capital flows into the space, and first-mover organizations start launching experiments.
2. Peak of Inflated Expectations
This is when excitement brings in more suppliers and people start using the product. Media coverage and hype increase, although with limited proof that the technology can deliver.
3. Trough of disillusionment
This is when the original excitement wears off and early adopter reports predictable performance issues and low returns on investment
4. The Slope of Enlightenment
This is when early adopters see initial benefits and other starts to understand how to adapt the innovation to their organizations.
5. Plateau of productivity
In the last phase, more users start to see real-use benefits and the innovation becomes mainstream.
The period of movement varies from innovation to innovation, and some disappear from the hype cycle or get replaced by superior technologies.
According to Gartner’s assessment, stablecoins, Cryptocurrencies, and Blockchain wallets lie closest to the Plateau with less than an estimated 2 years until the value is realized and becomes mainstream.
What about Tokenization?
2022, a year that so far has been defined by market crashes and a decline in economic growth. A year that in every essence has hit the cryptocurrency market in the same way. It is in times like this that builders need to be resilient and strong-minded to push through doubts and hurdles in pursuing their vision.
In the 2021 Gartner report, tokenization was inside the 2nd cycle defined as the peak of inflated expectations. A time with increasing media coverage but yet unproven technology. Despite this, one could argue that the hype was not yet been fully realized as Play-to-Earn (P2E), NFTs, and DEFI have dominated public interest over the past 2 years.
This year, Tokenization as a technology has taken the next step. Alongside Smart Contracts, Interoperability, and Secure Multiparty Transaction, Tokenization is placed in the Trough of Disillusionment, arguably the most challenging phase. This is a phase that makes or breaks a product, where interest wanes as experiments and implementation fail to deliver and producers of the technology shake out or fail. This puts Tokenization into a time to prove it works and can be monetizable by overcoming psychological, experimental, and risk management challenges.
Gartner has established that tokenization with plateau into the last phase sometime in the next 5 to 10 years. This might seem like a long time but is not if one considers complete disruption in traditional sectors like asset management, banking, and crowdfunding. A fiat economy that turns into a tokenized one integrated alongside the vast majority of real-world assets. The grade of innovation that blockchain brings needs maturity and real products to prove that it is not a buzz but an enabler of tomorrow’s digital economy. Thus, 5 years for a vertical like tokenization is not too far-fetched.
This is a time when tokenization companies need to move from a theoretical perspective to practically applying the technology to reach the next phase in the hype cycle. 2022 is without a doubt a bear market year, so it is an added component to the sector to continue building. As with every other bear market, companies who survive and prove their worth will come out stronger and with a first seat into the next bull market as markets themselves are but a continuous cycle of rinse and repeat.
Brickken is sitting comfortably in the boat in the midst of failing crypto projects and doubt. Building, growing and establishing itself on the market as tokenization continues to advance and take the next steps into the slope of enlightenment and eventually Plateau of productivity. To differentiate itself from blatant hype, knowing that this is a period in which the real projects will prove their worth and emerge at the forefront of mass adoption. Knowing full well that the bear market brings about opportunities to build infrastructure that will bring the economy into the digital era in which tokenization and blockchain are predicted to play a key role.